It’s not too often that the Six Nations can be decided on only the second weekend of the tournament, but that is the reality facing the tournament this year. One of France or Ireland is going to go on and win this competition, by Saturday night we will know which one.
That is of no disrespect to England, Wales or Scotland who will all still be harbouring hopes of winning the championship, particularly England following last weekend’s good win over Wales.
But Ireland-France is the big one and it is the one we have all been looking forward to since that great day in Cardiff (what is it about that stadium and great days in Irish rugby?) last March. It’s the one we all said was going to decide Ireland’s fate this year.
Granted, our record against France in Paris is abysmal, but if there is one year when Ireland can travel to Paris and come away with a win it is 2010.France may have returned to a more natural style of play and finally look like a good team under Lievremont, but Ireland are undefeated for over a year and will no doubt go into the game high on confidence. They will also be looking to hit back at allegations of cheating and biased refereeing that have been emanating from France all week.
How much of that confidence can be justified, however? No doubt the scrum will be strongly tested. It is probably the weakest part of the Irish team and the French showed against Scotland that they are more than up for a fight.
It is in the backs, however, that the game will be won or lost with Ireland holding the most potent strike-force in the Six Nations, and with the French defence playing as terrible as ever, Brian O’Driscoll et al should have plenty of space to expose.
From the Irish perspective, I'm not worried about Matthieu Bastareaud or Yannick Jauzion and I don't see the French backline as a huge threat. If they do manage to function well then it will be because the Irish scrum has been tossed about and not because the backline is any better than Ireland’s.
The French problems at half back, with Morgan Parra and Francois Trinh-Duc both unconvincing against Scotland, is also a problem area for France which Ireland should be able to exploit.
If there is one place in the Six Nations which can make or break a player it is Paris. And the fear this weekend is that one of the Irish backs could be broken during the game. If even one of the Irish backline plays below par then Ireland cannot win. Every player needs to be at their 100% best and for that to happen Rob Kearney needs to return to his 2009 best, and fast!
Against Italy he gave probably his worst display in an Irish jersey at either Full-Back or on the Wing. But if one thing is to help Kearney get back on track it is the fact that the French Full-Back, Clement Poitrenaud, is even shakier at the moment and Kearney is more than capable of taking advantage of that.
The return of Keith Earls to the starting line up is more than welcome, as good as Trimble was last weekend, because Earls can conjure up a moment of magic which Trimble is not capable of. The French team are notorious for leaving space on the wing and Earls will no doubt punish that.
Leo Cullen in the Second-Row is also a good selection by Kidney, not only did he have a great game against Italy but having Cullen and O’Connell in the pack affords Ireland two on-field leaders up front. Both have captained teams to Heineken Cup titles in the last two years and with a shaky front row, their strength and leadership is needed.
The return of Ferris is also very important as the French Back-Row is their strongest unit. Ferris can match their physicality and aggressiveness, something that Kevin McLaughlin, for all his talent, just would not have been able to do.
As I said at the beginning, this match is going to decide where the Six Nations championship resides for the coming 12 months. And I am going to call on all Irish fans to get behind the team and will them to a famous victory in Paris.
Verdict: Ireland 22-18 France
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