This weekend will see Ireland play England in one of the most important ties between the teams since the 2003 Grand Slam decider in Lansdowne road. Win and Ireland are right back in the race for the Six Nations championship. Lose and they are possibly looking at a complete implosion and months of rebuilding.
Now many of you may think that I am overstating it when I say I could be an implosion but an Irish team losing two games in succession is a rarity over the past few years and may of the current crop of players are not used to it. Winning is a habit but so is losing.
If Ireland go into the games against Wales and Scotland with two defeats behind them they could struggle. Even if the games are being played in Croke Park it is possible that defeat could be on the cards if the worst comes to pass.
However, if the Irish team go to Twickenham this Saturday and win for the 6th time in 7 matches against England then they can go on and claim the Six Nations title. And win in Twickenham is what I expect the Irish team to do.
Declan Kidney had to make a number of tough decisions when selecting his team for this match. Out go Ronan O’Gara and Leo Cullen, replaced by Jonny Sexton and Donncha O’Callaghan. Geordan Murphy and Rory Best also come in for the injured Rob Kearney and suspended Jerry Flannery.
Replacing O’Gara with Sexton is the best decision Kidney has made since taking over the Irish team as it shows he is willing to build towards the World Cup in New Zealand in 18 months time and proves he is picking most players based on current form. I say most because he has dropped Leo Cullen which is something I cannot understand at all. Cullen has been Ireland’s best player over the first two matches and O’Callaghan is only coming back from injury.
But that is not the important change, bringing Sexton into the team is. If Sexton performs well then Ireland will win but if he has his first off day in an Irish shirt then Ireland will struggle and Twickenham could begin to look like the fortress it once was.
The biggest surprise, for me, was that Eoin Reddan was not selected to start alongside Sexton. I am a firm believer of keeping a half-back partnership together and with Sexton & Reddan doing so well together for Leinster it makes sense that they should play together for Ireland aswell.
Reddan is capable of bringing the best out of Sexton due to his quick hands and smart decisions whereas O’Leary is quite a slow scrumhalf and kicks the ball far too much for my liking. My fear is that Sexton will not get the ball in hand as much as he would like.
Sexton, however, is a much bigger player than O’Gara and a far superior defender than him also and also possesses a youthful ignorance which means the occasion should not get to him. Making your first Six Nations start in Twickenham is not the easiest of debuts but it is one that Sexton should make it through without problem.
Offensively against France, Ireland did not look high on confidence, and that is where Sexton comes in, because he is also quicker than O'Gara and he will mix the game up a bit more, mainly because he does not know any better.
Much is also being made of Rob Kearney’s absence from the team this weekend. Kearney has not had as good a season as he did last year and it was beginning to show in his confidence, (The attempted catch from the kick-off against France was a sign of things to come).
But bringing in Geordan Murphy is an inspired piece of coaching by Declan Kidney. Nobody expected Murphy to start but, much like Kearney, he comes from a Gaelic Football background and will be able to catch high ball in his sleep. It is also an advantage that he probably knows Twickenham better than half the current English team from his years at Leicester.
This brings up the question of how England will play. Are we going to see a more adventurous English team than that which played in Rome two weeks ago or are we going to see the same gutless and lacklustre display from that day?
England need to win this game just as much as Ireland do because they are at a crossroads. Win the game and they could kick on and even win a Grand Slam. But lose the game and they could fall backwards very quickly.
With a World Cup coming up in 18 months time it is now that England will feel they should be beginning to play well with an eye on winning in New Zealand.
England also cannot rely on Wilkinson to kick them to victory in this game as the Irish discipline has been fantastic over under Kidney (Cian Healy was the first Irish player to be yellow carded in 12 months). England will need to score tries and as good as Wilkinson is when it comes to goal kicking, he just is not the player he used to be in open play.
Like Ronan O’Gara, Wilkinson has seen his place come under scrutiny over the past few weeks. A good opening game against Wales was followed by a poor display, both in open play and goal kicking, against the Italians. However, unlike O’Gara, Wilkinson has managed to keep his place. It probably helps his cause that England does not have a viable alternative at out-half in the squad. The second best English out-half being Danny Cipriani and he is so far from getting a look in that he is moving to Australia. But even at that this could be Wilkinson’s last chance.
Wales coach Warren Gatland said he didn't think France were that good last week and insisted that Ireland were very bad, but that is not entirely true.
Ireland did not play at their best, but France, when they are playing with that kind of confidence, are peerless. England simply are not as good as France so a lot of the problems that Ireland encountered in Paris will not exist at Twickenham.
Ireland will have learned an awful lot about contact in Paris, because France were fantastic at the contact area. Ireland needs to win the collisions in the forwards against England and need to be running on to the ball.
That was the difference between the France game and any other game Ireland has played recently and as a result Ireland's ball was poor. Against England, if Ireland get any ball of note, I think they can do damage.
England at home are usually very difficult to beat. But the truth is the idea of fortress Twickenham does not really exist anymore and I think Ireland will win. There is too much class in the team and they will not want to feel that negative feeling of defeat again anytime soon.
Verdict: England 12-28 Ireland
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